As the Russian army launched a major offensive in northeastern Ukraine, Vladimir Putin replaced the defense minister with an economist.

Many experts see this as a signal that the Kremlin is preparing for a “long” war.

The moment seems surprising at first glance.

Just as Russia launched  a new offensive on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv  , the government reshuffle orchestrated on Sunday, May 12, by  Vladimir Putin  – a rare occurrence in the Kremlin –  caught many experts by surprise  .

Less than a week after his reinauguration, the Russian president decided  to replace Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu  , who had held the position for 12 years, with the new secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.

He was replaced by  Andrei Belousov, an economist by training, with no military experience  .

By late 2022, it appeared that the war in Ukraine might end in a fiasco for Russia, due to Russia’s weak military effectiveness, Ukraine’s extraordinary resistance, and  the strong mobilization of Western powers on Kyiv’s side  . Since then, the country’s armed forces have regained composure and returned to the offensive, launching their largest offensive since the attempted capture of Kyiv in March 2022.

According to our colleagues at  Grand Continent,  Andrei Belousov is one of the main architects of modern Russian economic doctrine. Despite his lack of military experience,  this technocrat is involved in a number of defense industry projects  . He is known for promoting the optimization of technological innovation and production in the arms industry. According to our colleagues, ”  one of Belousov’s tasks will be to resolve disputes between the military and industry to ensure uninterrupted supplies to the armed forces and transform the economy  .”

“Regulate the financial situation” of the Russian Ministry of Defense

For many experts, the election of Andrei Belousov suggests the Kremlin is preparing for a long-term war in Ukraine.  With a third of the country’s budget currently allocated to the war effort  , Vladimir Putin reportedly wants to ”  put the ministry’s finances in order,”  according to political consultant Yevgeny Minchenko in an article for  Kommersant  . ”  The Kremlin doesn’t need a military man or a former Defense Ministry official. It needs someone who understands economics and knows how to wage this modern war, how to accumulate new resources and quickly redistribute them,  ” explains political scientist Aleksandra Filippenko in an interview with  France 24  .

”  Convinced that time is on its side, the Kremlin is counting on the exhaustion of both Ukrainians and the West  ,” says Anne de Tinguy, a Russia specialist, in an interview with the Center for International Studies at Sciences Po.  ”  This suggests that Putin is planning a long-term war  . A war not only with Ukraine, but also with the West as a whole, a war with NATO,”  added Oleksandr Lytvynenko, Secretary of the Security Council of Ukraine, in an interview with AFP.